Ebook Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004, by Maggie Mahar
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Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004, by Maggie Mahar
Ebook Bull: A History of the Boom and Bust, 1982-2004, by Maggie Mahar
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In 1982, the Dow hovered below 1000. Then, the market rose and rapidly gained speed until it peaked above 11,000. Noted journalist and financial reporter Maggie Mahar has written the first book on the remarkable bull market that began in 1982 and ended just in the early 2000s. For almost two decades, a colorful cast of characters such as Abby Joseph Cohen, Mary Meeker, Henry Blodget, and Alan Greenspan came to dominate the market news.
This inside look at that 17-year cycle of growth, built upon interviews and unparalleled access to the most important analysts, market observers, and fund managers who eagerly tell the tales of excesses, presents the period with a historical perspective and explains what really happened and why.
- Sales Rank: #199587 in Books
- Published on: 2004-10-12
- Released on: 2004-10-12
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 8.00" h x 1.19" w x 5.31" l, .90 pounds
- Binding: Paperback
- 528 pages
From Publishers Weekly
Financial journalist Mahar offers a thorough and accessible history of the explosive 1982-1999 bull market that is illuminating as well as sobering from the current bear market perspective. She notes that most people swept up in the euphoria of this latest market surge failed to recall the lessons of 1929-1934 and 1970-1974, when earlier bubbles collapsed and investors lost heavily. Citing studies by esteemed economists John Kenneth Galbraith and Charles Kindleberger, Mahar reminds readers that this self-blinding euphoria is a regular feature of every bull market. In vivid detail, she documents the trends and outsized personalities that fueled this particular bull market, including the surge of leveraged buyouts of 1984-1987, the mania for junk bonds, falling short-term interest rates, the rush of individual investors into 401(k) retirement plans, the power (and appetites) of mutual funds and the media frenzy that lent an unlikely allure to quarterly corporate earnings reports. As the runup in stock prices gained momentum in the late 1990s while evidence of corporate accounting shenanigans mounted, Mahar's account assumes the compelling power of an oncoming train wreck. Survivors of the recent market meltdown can profit from Mahar's assertion: "Ultimately, secular bear markets teach investors to learn to manage risk in a different way, focusing not on the odds, but on the size of risk." Individual investors will also gather that they need to be more skeptical of some sources of "information" and to be much better informed not to be burned again. Charts.
Copyright 2003 Reed Business Information, Inc.
From Booklist
Mahar, a journalist, explores the intrigue and implications of the famous 1982-99 bull market. We are introduced to money managers, stock analysts, and market timers who played critical roles, as well as an unprecedented number of average men and woman (called "main street investors") who poured their retirement savings into mutual funds--money most of them could not afford to lose. Small investors were not advised of the inherent risks in their investments, says Mahar, and the media hype was so great and the news was so good that thousands upon thousands gave Wall Street their confidence. The book concludes with the author's thoughts on topics such as the "buy and hold" strategy; managing risk in a bear market; strategic market timing; and commodities, gold, and the dollar. The 1982-99 run of the bulls on Wall Street was part of a longer cycle that governs the stock market, and Mahar teaches many valuable lessons in this excellent history and analysis. Mary Whaley
Copyright © American Library Association. All rights reserved
Review
“Bull!! also offers individual investors prescriptive data on how to position oneself for the next bull-market cycle.” (International Herald Tribune)
The other question on which Mahar is very interesting is the behavior of Greenspan . . the best account I’ve seen. (UPI)
“Mahar takes complicated topics and explains them clearly for the average reader. Her exceptional book is most highly recommended.” (Library Journal)
“Mahar imparts a forward-looking and worrisome lesson that makes Bull! intriguing reading.” (Boston Globe)
“Highly readable and insightful... makes a devastating case against the contention that the market is almost perfectly efficient.” (New York Times)
“Striking...has a lot of the writing pizzazz lacking in ‘Origins of the Crash’” (New York Times Book Review)
Most helpful customer reviews
18 of 18 people found the following review helpful.
Fantastic blend of history and theory
By therosen
On the surface, this is a history of the stock market over the past 20 years. Like most economic history, one would expect to be bored to tears. The book adds a couple doses of financial theory (also "Ho Hum") and somehow manages to be a delightfully insightful and interesting read. The 400+ pages just flew by.
There's lots of interesting historical annecdotes included:
1) The bears who get killed for mistiming their predictions. (The bull isn't done until the last bear is gored)
2) How the Blodgets of the world were created by a system that encouraged cooking the books and an abdication of responsibility. (Mahar covers the laws that created this environment, and those politicians that pushed for them)
3) The ups and down of particular investors as they deal with the bull and inevitable bear.
In addition, several insights come out:
1) Buy and Hold Equities isn't all that it's cracked up to be.
2) Not everyone belongs in the market. Indeed, many investing professionals make their money on Wall Street, but invest it on Main Street. (Harder to lose money on a house)
3) Decreasing spending or increasing earning potential can go a long way.
4) It is easier to pick trends than timing them.
There are a couple attacks on her thinking:
1) She cites the virtues of market timing, but market timing really isn't that easy. If it were, we'd all be doing it.
2) She cites many folks who called the end of the bull right. In a sea of information overload, it isn't that easy to find these people and understand their arguments. (There's always convincing bears)
3) There are many instances of "If you only followed Xs advice from Day Y..." which is tough to check. Is that a valid trend, or are the dates (especially the end dates) picked just to amplify a point? (It's always possible to find a 5, 10 or 20 year period to prove a point)
That said, the book is an important one, both from a historical point of view, and to improve one's investing.
12 of 12 people found the following review helpful.
Demolishes Investment Myths!
By BookwormX
The author explains that the 90s bull market was driven by momentum, not value. The main source of liquidity was a stampeding herd of misinformed individual investors whose do-it-yourself investing, much of it via 401(k)s, flooded the mutual fund industry with money, driving up stock valuations to unsustainable levels. The majority of individual investors got most of their financial advice through the media, which had been taken over by investment industry marketers. The market's upward momentum made most fund managers look good even though they were only following the indexes. As a result, mutual funds became asset gatherers, basing their fees on the amount of money under management, not on investment expertise. Lawmakers enacted the Private Securities Litigation Act of 1995 which helped build the bubble by enabling corporations to mislead investors about their earnings; the effect was a massive transfer of wealth from shareholders to corporate management. Financial chicanery became prevalent throughout corporate America, and creative accounting was so pervasive that, in 2001, the Bureau of Economic Analysis announced that there had been no earnings since 1995! During the longer term from 1969-2003, stocks outperformed long-term Treasuries only by a trifling 1% per year, but Wall Street and the media kept investors' attention focused on equities because equity-based commissions, fees, kickbacks and other rake-offs are far more lucrative. After the bull market's momentum had reversed, the media kept telling investors to stay invested and buy on dips, but investors were pouring money into a large sieve. Many investors had become uncritical as they monitored their accounts; the balances looked okay but, in reality, investors' deposits were camouflaging the investment losses. Mahar shows that timing, which depends on expertise and luck, is key to whether an investor wins or loses, and that buy-and-hold would not have worked well during the long term. Unlike momentum and long-term buy-and-hold investors, successful value investors, like Warren Buffett, use market timing to buy low and sell high. The only true golden periods for stocks over bonds were the 1950s and 1960s. Mahar demolishes the myths perpetrated upon investors by the financial services industry and its lackeys in the media. Every investor should read this book!
8 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
a guided tour of bubbleland
By Jeff Lipkes
_Bull!_ is a riveting and instructive saga about the hazards of rose-colored glasses to anyone's financial health. Unlike the shenanigans detailed in _Liar's Poker_, _Predator's Ball_, and _When Genius Failed_, we all went for the ride Mahar describes. This is a wryly written and well-researched post-mortem. It's almost worth buying for the chapter on CNBC alone. Lots of nice quotes from shrewd market-watchers ("information is not knowledge" and the corollary "always, the promoters who spread the tips sell to those who consume them"; "anxiety motivates people to take risk"-counterintuitively; "the argument that expensing stock options might hurt the share prices was akin to complaining that investors would pay less for shares if they knew that profits were inflated. Of course they would!"; "The unique advantage of gold is that it is no one else's liability"). Some cogent analyses of what was driving the speculation (401(k)s, declining cd and money market yields, etc.) and of the beneficiaries. Among the latter, Mahar is particularly good on the mutual fund industry and the quandaries of conscientious fund managers at the end of the decade. There are plenty of deft portraits of a host of dubious characters-corrupt analysts, criminal CEOs-and of the bubbly companies that fabricated their earnings, or didn't even bother. Naturally the heroes are the lonely bearish analysts and newsletter writers.
But Mahar wants to be more than a historian; the book's subtitle is "What 21st Century Investors Need to Know About Financial Cycles." Apparently, they don't need to know much about their relation to business cycles or to geopolitical events. There is no reference in the discussion of the bear market of the 1970s to the huge boost in the capital gains tax in 1969 or to surging oil prices. The market seems to cycle in a vacuum. You almost have the impression that personal computers are the tulips of the late 20th century. That people were willing to pay $400 for a share of Amazon and throw billions at dotcons that had no prayer of making a profit doesn't detract from the fact that there was a technological revolution in the 80s and 90s that has totally changed the way we live our lives and run our businesses. There's a reason why Intel and Msft have the market caps they do; the bull market of the 80s and 90s was more than just a frenzy of irrational exuberance.
As a bear, Mahar naturally goes after the philosophy of buy and hold, but her numbers belie her biases. She cites a study looking at 10 year periods between 1926 and 1998 and notes, triumphantly, that there was a 4% chance that you'd make nothing by holding for 10 years. But every investment is a bet and 19:1 are pretty good odds. And b and h means more than 10 years. After 40 years, your chance of earning greater than 10% annualized return is "just" four in five, says Mahar dismissively. An investor could be excused for thinking that was not bad. There were positive annual real returns in all the bear markets she graphs at the beginning of her chapter on cycles, save for 2000-2004.
Her bearishness colors her story. Magellan's Jeff Vinik is supposed to be a seer for dumping tech stocks in fall of 1995; Gail Dudek is a heroine for repeatedly calling a market top starting in 1997. But it's not particularly prescient-or profitable-to be four years early. From 1/1/96 to 12/31/04 the Nasdaq had an 11.86% annualized return, w/o compounding. If there are paper gains, there are also paper loses. Had you bought shares of the Prudent Bear fund run by David Tice, another hero, you'd have been down about 3.4% p/a over the same period.
Still, Mahar's distinction between secular and cyclical markets is valid, and there may be another leg down to the bear market that began early in 2000. Maybe the S&P500's P/E never got low enough and the despair never got high enough. The twin trade and budget deficits are worrisome as is the extent to which the recovery in 2003-4 was driven by consumer debt. A lot of readers will find the author's bear case pretty compelling. But whatever your take on the next quarter or next decade, there's a lot to savor and learn from in _Bull!_.
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